Ethiopia Sees 272 Tigray Rebels Killed as Fighting Spreads to Amhara and Afar in Most Dangerous Countries

Tigray rebels have declared a "full-blown war" with the Ethiopian government after launching attacks into the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions, prompting fears of a return to civil war. Ethiopia is among the most dangerous countries where such renewed clashes risk broader instability.

Escalation into Full-Blown War

Tigray's rebel authorities say they are now in a "full-blown war" with the Ethiopian government, as fighting spreads into the neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions. [1] Ethiopia's federal army says 272 rebels were killed and 260 wounded in the north. [1] Fears are mounting that Ethiopia could be sliding back towards civil war as fighting intensifies in the north, with the army saying it killed 272 TPLF fighters in Amhara while the rebels describe the conflict as a "full-blown war." [2] The escalation comes after the TPLF joined a new alliance with six other armed groups. [2]

Heavy Fighting and Humanitarian Concerns

Ethiopian forces battled overnight to repel an assault by Tigray rebels in the Afar region, a humanitarian source said Friday, with reports of an internet blackout in the north of the country. [3] Rebels in the northern Tigray region seized local airports and launched attacks into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara this week, saying they were once again in a "full-blown war" with the federal government. [3] Locals fear a repeat of the telecoms blackout and supplies blockade imposed on Tigray during the last civil war in 2020-2022 that killed an estimated 600,000 people. [3] Online monitor Netblocks said there was an "internet disruption in northern Ethiopia corresponding to reports of a telecoms blackout in Tigray". [3] AFP was unable to contact sources in the region by phone on Friday. [3] A humanitarian source in Afar said there was "heavy fighting overnight" around the town of Abala that sits in the mountains on the border with Tigray. [3] "The federal forces pushed the rebels from entering the town," the source said, adding that a drone was used by the army. [3] Heavy clashes occurred in North Wollo Zone of Amhara on Thursday, including around the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Lalibela, home to Ethiopia's famed rock churches. [3]

TPLF Alliance and Military Strategy

The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups around the country in a bid to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. [3] Analysts say the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) appears to be repeating its strategy from the last war -- pushing south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa, while the offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti, which provides almost all of Ethiopia's international trade cargo, including fuel. [3] "The alliance is likely trying to seize settlements alongside key infrastructure routes to undermine federal government's ability to supply," Edward Bach of consultancy firm Verisk Maplecroft told AFP. [3]

Government Advantages and Regional Risks

The government has a significant military advantage, however, with a large arsenal of drones, an army numbering some 500,000, and the support of external actors, notably the United Arab Emirates. [3] The renewed fighting comes at an awkward moment for the United States, which only this month lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last civil war, saying the "national emergency... has expired". [3] The US embassy sided with Ethiopia's government this week, saying it was "disappointed to see the leadership of the TPLF... launch a large-scale offensive". [3] The conflict could also draw in neighbouring Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade it to gain access to the Red Sea. [3]

Fears of Return to Civil War

Tigray's rebel authorities say they are now in a "full-blown war" with the Ethiopian government, as fighting spreads into the neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions. [1] Fears are mounting that Ethiopia could be sliding back towards civil war as fighting intensifies in the north, with the army saying it killed 272 TPLF fighters in Amhara while the rebels describe the conflict as a "full-blown war." [2] Locals fear a repeat of the telecoms blackout and supplies blockade imposed on Tigray during the last civil war in 2020-2022 that killed an estimated 600,000 people. [3]

What to watch next: Observers will monitor whether the TPLF alliance continues pushing south through Amhara or maintains pressure in Afar to disrupt supply routes from Djibouti, alongside any signs of further internet or telecoms disruptions and potential involvement from Eritrea.