Ethiopia Retakes Tigray Capital Mekelle as Eritrea Accuses Addis Ababa of Aggression
Ethiopia and Eritrea have traded accusations of aggression amid the escalation of current wars in the world, with Ethiopian forces retaking Mekelle and other cities from Tigrayan rebels while Eritrean troops are reported in the area.
Current Hostilities in Tigray
Ethiopian forces have pushed back Tigray People's Liberation Front fighters, retaking Mekelle, Shire and Adigrat. [5] Rebels are retreating toward Sheraro near the Eritrean border with low morale and defections reported. [5] The Tigray People's Liberation Front launched a major offensive against the Ethiopian army on 23 September. [3] Witnesses told AFP that the rebels had lost two other cities in Tigray: Shire and Adigrat. [5] An aid worker in Shire said TPLF fighters and the local administration left on Wednesday. [5] The rebels were retreating to Sheraro, a town near the Eritrean border, according to a Tigrayan official from a TPLF dissident faction. [5] Kjetil Tronvoll, regional specialist at Oslo New University College, told AFP that the TPLF was "withering", with low morale and frustration with their leaders. [5]
Accusations Between Ethiopia and Eritrea
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing Tigrayan rebels who launched an offensive on 23 September, while Eritrea claims Ethiopia is waging an unprovoked war. [2] The two countries have severed diplomatic relations. [5] Between 5,000 and 8,000 Eritrean soldiers are estimated to be in Tigray, where Ethiopian drone strikes have targeted them. [2] Eritrean troops were seen in Adigrat before the strikes. [5] Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos wrote in a letter to diplomats that Eritrea's conduct is "a blatant act of aggression that engages Ethiopia's inherent right to self-defence". [5] Eritrea's information minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, responded on X that it was facing "an unprovoked war of aggression" from Ethiopia. [5]
Ethiopian Airlines resumes flights to Tigray capital Mekelle. — Source: africanews
Impact on Transport and Local Order
Ethiopian Airlines will resume flights to Mekelle on 11 October after a three-week suspension due to the fighting, though flights to Shire and Axum remain halted. [3] The airline suspended flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum on 23 September, citing the “current situation” in Tigray. [3] Federal police have deployed in Mekelle calling on residents to help restore order and establish a new administration after the rebel pullout. [4] Looters are operating in Shire, and four people were killed and 11 injured in an exchange of gunfire related to the looting. [5] Ethiopian federal police officers gathered on a road in Mekelle on Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026. [2]
Mixed Migration and Displacement Risks
Renewed hostilities in northern Ethiopia carry mixed migration consequences five years after an earlier assessment of the Tigray war. [1] Northern Ethiopia is seeing a resurgence of active hostilities, this time with different regional alignments, the Red Sea in turmoil, aid budgets collapsed and drought setting in. [1] These developments could affect mixed migration and displacement for the more than one million refugees Ethiopia already hosts and for Ethiopians on the move. [1]
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Regional Tensions and Red Sea Context in Current Wars in the World
The conflict raises fears of regional war amid Ethiopia's repeated calls for direct Red Sea access, which Eritrea views as a threat to its sovereignty, five years after the 2020-2022 Tigray war. [2] Ethiopia has repeatedly called for direct access to the Red Sea, a demand Eritrea sees as a potential threat to its sovereignty. [2] The two countries fought a brutal border war between 1998 and 2000, and relations have deteriorated sharply after once fighting side by side. [2] Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 and fought a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000. [5] Relations improved with the rise to power of Abiy in 2018 and Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia during the latter's 2020-2022 civil war against the Tigray People's Liberation Front. [5] But relations deteriorated after the war, with Eritrea angry over the way it was concluded and fearing an Ethiopian invasion. [5]
Outlook for the Conflict
The TPLF is withering, with low morale and frustration with their leaders, and many are defecting and going back to their villages. [5] Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is not expected to stop at the border. [5] Landlocked Ethiopia has repeatedly insisted that it has a right to direct sea access, which Eritrea interprets as a threat to invade and seize its port at Assab. [5] The hysterical infatuation with the Red Sea must also be seen with previous intentions to wage a war of invasion against Eritrea, according to the Eritrean information minister. [5]
What to watch next: Ethiopian forces may advance further while the TPLF shows signs of weakening through defections, raising the risk of broader regional escalation tied to Red Sea access disputes.
