Drought Compounds Current Wars in the World to Raise Famine Risk Across Darfur and Kordofan

Conflict and an El Niño-induced drought affecting roughly half of Sudan are increasing the risk of famine across Darfur and Kordofan amid current wars in the world, with acute malnutrition and food insecurity worsening in multiple areas according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. [1] [3]

Current Food Security and Famine Risk

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification warned that conflict and drought are increasing the risk of famine across Sudan’s Darfur and Kordofan regions. [1] An El Niño-induced drought affecting roughly half of the country is compounding the impacts of conflict and displacement, reducing food availability, driving up prices and affecting livelihoods. [1] In May, nearly 19.5 million people, over 40 percent of Sudan’s population, faced high levels of acute food insecurity, including 135,000 in the most severe Phase 5 category marked by extreme shortages, starvation, very high malnutrition and excess deaths. [1] The IPC reported worsening acute malnutrition in additional areas, including Nyala, where the proportion of children accessing nutrition services who were admitted for severe acute malnutrition doubled from approximately 5 percent to 11 percent between January and August. [1] Two displacement camps in South Darfur recorded global acute malnutrition above famine thresholds. [1] Across Greater Darfur, 13 of the 17 nutrition surveys carried out since January found critical levels of acute malnutrition. [3] In Eastern Jebel Marra, South Darfur, a survey of two camps for displaced people found acute malnutrition among children at 38 and 30.8 percent, above the threshold for famine, with hunger severe and death rates high. [3] The IPC’s Famine Review Committee stated there is not enough survey data for a full analysis, but the evidence points to a rapidly worsening situation. [3]

Impact of Drought on Agriculture and Livelihoods

Sudan faces heightened famine risk in Darfur and Kordofan due to conflict and El Niño-induced drought. — Source: reliefweb Poor vegetation growth affects nearly two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and about half in South Darfur, West Kordofan and South Kordofan, where severe water shortages and limited opportunity for agricultural recovery threaten livelihoods. [1] In North Darfur, 64 percent of cropland is showing poor plant growth. [3] Rains arrived in late September, too late to save most cereal crops, and cereal prices are very likely to keep rising. [3] Western Kordofan is suffering one of its worst droughts since 2004 amid poor rainfall. [1] In North Darfur, delayed rains that impacted crop cultivation and critically low food stocks have worsened food insecurity. [1] Drought now covers more than half of Sudan, wiping out crops in some areas and leaving families without food or income. [3] Farmers’ livelihoods have deteriorated and dependence on food assistance is on the rise. [1]

Displacement and Regional Control Amid Current Wars in the World

Sudan’s war erupted in April 2023 when tensions between the military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces escalated into open fighting in the capital, Khartoum, before spreading across the country. [1] The conflict has killed at least 150,000 people, according to conflict monitor ACLED, though aid groups say the actual toll is likely higher. [1] About 13 million people have been displaced. [1] The army holds sway in Sudan’s central and eastern regions, while the Darfur region in the west and parts of the south are under control of the rival RSF. [1] The arid Darfur region, which is about the size of Spain, has faced some of the worst violence, with displacement camps invaded and ethnic cleansing killing thousands at a time. [1] Greater Kordofan has seen more than 300,000 people forced from their homes since October 2025. [3]

Health and Humanitarian Access Challenges

{IMAGE_3} Healthcare is extremely limited, often entirely inaccessible, while clean water is becoming increasingly scarce, leaving a poorly nourished population highly vulnerable to disease and death. [1] As of August, only 26 percent of those expected to need care for severe acute malnutrition with medical complications had received it. [3] Without treatment, as many as two thirds of them could die. [3] As of 8 October, less than half of the humanitarian appeal for Sudan had been funded. [3] Aid is not keeping up, held back by a severe lack of funding, insecurity and restricted access. [3] Aid workers face extreme danger. [3] Two trucks contracted by WFP came under fire on 2 and 3 October, killing at least one person. [3]

Recent Violence and Operational Conditions

During September, the operational environment in the conflict affected regions of Sudan was highly complex and volatile, marked by localized ground clashes, intensified military activity, drone strikes, and severe weather conditions that placed increased pressure on forcibly displaced and host communities. [2] In Blue Nile State, an escalation of violence triggered renewed internal displacement. [2] Markets have been hit by more than 170 airstrikes, looting incidents or armed clashes this year. [3]

Calls for Action and Outlook

Food insecurity, acute malnutrition and excess mortality will likely intensify. [1] The IPC’s Famine Review Committee said famine is the collapse of systems and that a humanitarian catastrophe already of historic proportions is being witnessed. [3] The alert called for an end to the fighting, safe and sustained access for aid agencies especially in North and West Kordofan, and flexible funding on a large scale. [3] Without a major increase in help, more lives will be at risk. [3]

What to watch next: The IPC and Famine Review Committee warned that food insecurity, acute malnutrition and excess mortality will likely intensify without an end to fighting and expanded aid access. [1] [3]