Doomsday Clock Ticks Closer as Expert Says Putin Unlikely to Seek Ukraine Peace Deal
As the doomsday clock ticks closer, expert Kristi Raik states that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to ever seek a peace deal with Ukraine as Russia escalates attacks to create fear and weaken Western support. [1]
Expert Assessment on Peace Prospects
Kristi Raik, director of the International Center for Defense and Security, assesses that Russian leader Vladimir Putin assumes Russia can endure longer than Ukraine and its allies. [1] This assumption leads to the conclusion that Putin is not particularly likely to seek any peace agreement. [1] Raik notes that Putin still cannot achieve the goals he has set for himself in Ukraine. [1] From his perspective, the only alternative is to continue the war, perhaps at best to limit military activity at some point if it becomes too costly and too dangerous for Russia. [1] No one in Ukraine believes the war will end before next spring, according to Raik after her visit to the country. [1] She adds that Russia is attacking more forcefully while Putin maintains the view that Russian forces can endure longer. [1]
Russian Escalation Tactics
Russia is attacking Ukraine with increasing force as part of efforts to create fear not only in Ukraine but also among its allies. [1] Raik explains that Russia attempts to weaken Europe's willingness to continue supporting Ukraine by constantly looking for new means to do so. [1] Things are not going well for Russia in the war right now, prompting it to begin taking more risks and escalating in the hope that Europe is not ready to adopt stronger countermeasures. [1] The countermeasures by European states have so far been quite weak, she stated. [1] It cannot be said that Western countries have taken no countermeasures at all, but these remain weaker than expected. [1] Raik pointed to Germany's reaction to the incident at Leipzig‑Halle Airport as an example. [1]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during a news conference on the Russia-Ukraine war. — Source: newsmax
Ukrainian Conditional Ceasefire Offer
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is ready to halt its strikes on Russian territory if allies can secure a genuine Russian commitment not to hit Ukraine's critical infrastructure. [2] Zelenskyy pushed back on President Donald Trump's claim that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure. [3] He stated that Kyiv has received no reliable guarantee that Moscow will stop its strikes. [3]
Russian Diplomatic Claims
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that Russia would have been living without war for a year had the US not backed away from the agreements reached in August 2025 in Alaska. [4] Lavrov stated at a round table that if the Americans had not backed away from the Anchorage agreements, and if Europe had not dragged those agreements out, Russia would have already been living without war for a year. [4] He reiterated the claim that Russia has never refused negotiations and that all negotiations that took place were halted not on Russia's initiative. [4] Lavrov insisted that Moscow has never changed its position since the start of the full-scale invasion and is ready to seek compromises. [4] Under this heading, Russia is prepared to search for reasonable compromises but has fundamentally not altered its objectives to guarantee its security, prevent NATO's presence on its borders, secure the legitimate rights of Russians and Russian-speaking people, and free them from threats of Nazification and militarisation. [4] Moscow is prepared for both bilateral and trilateral negotiations, yet the Russian Federation would not halt its aggression against Ukraine during any potential talks. [4]
Zelenskyy rejects Trump assertion of Russia-Ukraine energy truce amid ongoing Russian attacks. — Source: newsmax
Daily Russian Military Losses
Russia has lost 1,400 soldiers killed and wounded over the past day, bringing its total number of personnel losses to 1,510,000. [5] The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the total combat losses of the Russian forces between 24 February 2022 and 15 September 2026. [5] These include approximately 1,510,000 military personnel, 12,345 tanks, 25,334 armoured combat vehicles, 49,793 artillery systems, 2,131 multiple-launch rocket systems, 1,638 air defence systems, 442 fixed-wing aircraft, 356 helicopters, 2,626 ground robotic systems, 518,280 operational-tactical UAVs, 5,111 cruise missiles, 35 ships/boats, 2 submarines, 149,183 vehicles and fuel tankers, and 4,690 special vehicles and other equipment. [5] The latest daily losses include 1,400 military personnel, 0 tanks, 3 armoured combat vehicles, 41 artillery systems, 4 multiple-launch rocket systems, 1 air defence system, 0 fixed-wing aircraft, 0 helicopters, 11 ground robotic systems, 1,839 operational-tactical UAVs, 0 cruise missiles, 0 ships/boats, 0 submarines, 376 vehicles and fuel tankers, and 7 special vehicles and other equipment. [5] The information is being confirmed. [5]
Calls for Strengthened Support
Raik stressed that it is very important that support for Ukraine continues and that there is no sign Russia can achieve through its attacks that Western countries would somehow become afraid of supporting Ukraine. [1] On the contrary, this is precisely the critical moment when everything must be done to help strengthen Ukraine's air defense and tighten sanctions against Russia. [1] There are still many options that have not yet been dared to use, she said. [1] At the Arctic meeting in Rovaniemi, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk warned of decisive moments in the coming weeks, which Raik linked to Russia planning further attacks in Europe. [1] The countries whose support is most important for Ukraine, led by Germany, are the main targets. [1] In Western Europe, people tend to think the Baltic states are the primary target, but recently that has not been the case, and the ground for Russian influence operations is unfortunately more favorable in Germany or France than in the Baltic states. [1] U.S. President Donald Trump has not done anything significant to pressure Russia, although at times his attitude toward Ukraine has become more positive. [1] Raik replied that at present it can indeed be said that Washington wants peace much more than Moscow, and that Moscow does not actually want peace at all. [1]
What to watch next: Raik warned that Russia is planning further attacks in Europe, with countries led by Germany as main targets, while European states face the need to adopt stronger countermeasures amid ongoing escalation.
