Doomsday Clock Tensions Rise as Iran Offers to Reopen Hormuz Strait in Seven Days
Iran's parliament approved Mehrdad Akhlahci Ketabchi, a veteran of the country's ballistic missile program who was sanctioned by the UN in 2007, as the new defense minister amid heightened regional tensions and stalled negotiations with the US over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as the doomsday clock ticks amid these developments. [1]
Iran Appoints New Defense Minister With Missile Program Ties
Iran's parliament approved Mehrdad Akhlahci Ketabchi as the country's new defense minister on Sunday. [1] His rise to the position helps stabilize Iran’s top defense leadership at a time of increased tensions in the Gulf. [1] Iran expects more fighting to break out with the US or Israel. [1] Iran therefore is trying to shore up its defenses at home and prepare for operations in the region. [1] Ketabchi is believed to have a background in Iran’s missile program and its broader defense industry. [1] As Iran attempts to rebuild its defense industrial base, this matters. [1] Reuters noted that Akhlaqi replaces Majid Ebn al-Reza, who took over in an interim capacity after then Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh was killed by US-Israeli strikes in February. [1] Ketabchi was widely supported by parliament in his appointment. [1] Ketabchi has said he will rebuild the country’s defense sector. [1]
Ketabchi's Decades in Iran's Ballistic Missile Industry
Ketabchi was born in 1958. [1] He studied chemical engineering at Amirkabir University of Technology. [1] He earned a master's degree in strategic management from Malek Ashtar University of Technology, an institution affiliated with the Defense Ministry. [1] Iranian state media provided a short bio, noting that “His previous positions include heading the Shahid Bakeri Industrial Group and serving as managing director of the Aerospace Industries Organization.” [1] Ketabchi worked in Iranian defense industries for over four decades. [1] The Iran International report noted that Ketabchi “entered Iran's defense industries in the early 1980s and spent more than four decades in technical, industrial, and managerial positions, according to Iranian state-linked media.” [1] It added that “much of his career has involved solid-fuel missile propulsion systems and the management of industrial facilities associated with ballistic missile development.” [1] The new defense minister worked at the “Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group, a subsidiary of the Aerospace Industries Organization involved in Iran's ballistic missile program.” [1] He became the head of the Aerospace Industries Organization in 2014 and then headed the Defense Industries Organization. [1] He played a role in Iran’s Fateh-110 missile project. [1] “Akhlahci's close relationship with Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, a founder of the Revolutionary Guards' missile program, was central to his involvement in developing Iran's missile industry.” [1] He was sanctioned for his role in the missile program. [1] In 2007, the UN listed him on a sanctions list “as an individual involved in nuclear or ballistic missile activities.” [1] Ketabachi was listed as “head of the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group (SBIG), which is designated under resolution 1737 (2006) for its role in the ballistic missile program (designated under IRe.066),” by the UN. [1] The US Treasury Department also sanctioned him in 2008. [1] He is well known for his role in Iran’s missile program. [1] He has also been involved in procuring items for the program. [1] This puts a person in charge of Iran’s defense ministry who is uniquely positioned to try to rebuild the missile program. [1]
Iran Maintains Offer to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days remains on the table, foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday, as Tehran and Washington remain at odds over the conditions for ending their eight-month war. [2] Speaking to Iranian media outlets in Baghdad, where he was attending a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Araqchi said Tehran was reviewing Washington’s response to its proposal but accused the United States of lacking the honesty needed to reach an agreement. [2] “Our situation is clear and based on the seven-days proposal presented to the US. They shared comments which we are reviewing, but our proposal is still on the table and if there is any honesty on the US part, which there isn't, the way to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is obvious,” Araqchi said, according to Reuters. [2] Iran presented the proposal in mid-September after an interim ceasefire collapsed. [2] Tehran later acknowledged receiving a US response, but Iran’s security chief said last week that negotiations had stalled because Washington had failed to address all seven conditions for reopening the strategic waterway. [2] Araqchi said the strait could reopen within six days if the United States accepted Iran’s conditions, with negotiations resuming the following day. [2] Iran’s demands include lifting the US blockade on its ports, removing American sanctions on Iranian oil exports and ending hostilities across all regional fronts. [2] Araqchi has also accused the United States of undermining diplomatic efforts. [2] Speaking at the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers meeting, he said Washington had chosen “aggression, threats, assassination, and economic warfare, with blatant disregard for international law and the United Nations Charter”, according to Al Jazeera. [2] He said Iran would not accept pressure but remained open to negotiations. [2] “Iran does not accept coercion, threats, or intimidation, and will not relinquish its sovereign rights under pressure… But it remains ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and credible guarantees,” Araqchi said. [2] The Iranian foreign minister also met Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on the sidelines of the OIC meeting, according to Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency. [2] Iranian deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh has separately stressed that hostilities must end across all fronts to achieve lasting peace in the region. [2]
US-Iran Standoff Over Nuclear Issues and War Endgame
A major sticking point in the negotiations has been Washington’s insistence that Iran’s nuclear programme be addressed from the outset. [2] Tehran, however, wants discussions to initially focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring security in the waterway. [2] US Vice President JD Vance said earlier this month that Iran must make a “meaningful” reduction in its uranium enrichment capacity to meet Washington’s demands and bring the conflict to an end. [2] US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he expected the war with Iran to end “very quickly” and predicted that energy costs for American consumers would fall once hostilities ended. [2] Addressing supporters at a campaign rally in Kentucky, Trump linked the conflict’s outcome to domestic fuel prices and defended US military strikes against Iranian targets, claiming they had damaged Iran’s nuclear capabilities. [2] “It's going to end very quickly. When it ends, your gas prices are going to be lower than what they were before,” Trump said. [2] The comments come as Washington and Tehran continue to disagree over the sequence and terms of negotiations, with Iran insisting that reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending regional hostilities must be central to any agreement. [2] A US scholar assessed a 70% probability that Trump would strike Iran before November 3, viewing it as a potential campaign boost. [3]
Pakistan Halts Trade at Iran Border Crossings
Pakistan has suspended commercial trade with Iran through the Gabd–Rimdan and Taftan border crossings, citing security concerns and efforts to prevent smuggling, while Iranian officials say the disruption is temporary and linked to technical issues and precautionary measures. [4] Shahid Rind, adviser to the Balochistan chief minister on media and political affairs, said on Saturday that the temporary closure was intended to strengthen border management, address security concerns and curb smuggling. [4] He added that officials from both countries were discussing administrative issues and that the crossings could reopen soon. [4] Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei also described the suspension as temporary, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported. [4] He said technical problems and precautionary measures had disrupted cross-border movement and trade, adding that authorities from both countries were consulting to restore normal operations as quickly as possible. [4] The suspension has raised concerns among traders, with hundreds of freight vehicles carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), rice, fresh fruit and other goods reportedly stranded on both sides of the border. [4] Pakistani media reported that the Quetta Chamber of Commerce and Industry had advised businesses trading with Iran to stop placing new import and export orders until further notice. [4] The Gabd–Rimdan crossing has become an important route for energy and commercial supplies. [4] Dawn reported that more than 4,000 tonnes of LPG had reportedly been imported daily through the crossing, while Pakistani exports, including rice, had also increased in recent months. [4] Traders have warned that a prolonged closure could cause substantial financial losses and disrupt supplies, although the extent of any resulting shortages remains unclear. [4] The suspension follows a warning issued by the U.S. Treasury Department on October 5 that foreign banks and financial institutions could face sanctions for transactions involving sanctioned Iranian financial institutions. [4] Washington urged foreign financial institutions to stop such dealings, but Pakistani and Iranian officials have not publicly established a direct link between the warning and the border closure. [4] The disruption comes amid wider regional tensions and continuing economic pressure on Iran. [4] For now, officials from both countries say discussions are underway to resolve the issues, but no confirmed reopening date has been announced. [4]
Regional Context and Next Steps Amid Doomsday Clock Tensions
Before the war, the strait carried around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, making its reopening a key issue in efforts to restore regional shipping and energy flows. [2] In March, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that “after 20 days, I can tell you - Iran today has no ability to enrich uranium, and no ability to produce ballistic missiles.” [1] However, recent reports indicate Iran is rebuilding its missile program and has also repaired many missile launchers. [1] Ketabchi's appointment comes as Iran seeks to restore its missile capabilities despite recent setbacks. [1] The Hormuz talks remain stalled over the sequence of addressing nuclear issues and other conditions. [2]
What to watch next: Officials from both Pakistan and Iran say discussions are underway to resolve the border issues, but no confirmed reopening date has been announced. [4]
