Doomsday Clock for Russian War Economy Ticks as Intelligence Predicts Fight Possible Through 2028
Russia has sufficient economic and military resources to continue its war against Ukraine through 2027 and 2028 despite mounting pressures from Ukrainian long-range strikes on its oil infrastructure, logistics, and economy, according to Ukraine's military intelligence chief, even as the doomsday clock for the Russian war economy continues to tick amid these strains.
Russian Military Losses
Russia lost 1,410 soldiers in the past day, bringing total personnel losses since February 2022 to 1,499,390. [1] The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported these figures on its Facebook page, confirming the daily toll of killed and wounded Russian personnel. [1] Cumulative equipment losses include 12,332 tanks and 49,341 artillery systems as of the latest update covering the period from 24 February 2022 to 8 September 2026. [1] Additional tracked losses encompass 25,285 armoured combat vehicles, 2,104 multiple-launch rocket systems, and 1,612 air defence systems. [1] The report also lists 441 fixed-wing aircraft, 355 helicopters, 2,521 ground robotic systems, 504,309 operational-tactical UAVs, and 5,070 cruise missiles among the destroyed or damaged items. [1] Further details note 35 ships or boats, 2 submarines, 145,478 vehicles and fuel tankers, and 4,647 special vehicles and other equipment. [1] The information remains subject to ongoing confirmation by Ukrainian authorities. [1]
Doomsday Clock on Russian Economic Resilience and Pressures
The doomsday clock on Russian resources extends through at least 2028 according to assessments from Ukraine's military intelligence service. [5] Oleh Ivashchenko, the chief of Ukraine's military intelligence, stated that Russia is economically much weaker than at the start of the full-scale war but likely retains resources to fight for two more years. [5] He noted the main problems facing the Russian economy include a shortage of labor resources, a growing federal budget deficit, and a deteriorating situation in the banking system. [5] At the same time, Ivashchenko indicated these resources could last through 2027 and 2028. [5] Ukrainian strikes have disabled about 40% of Russia's oil-refining infrastructure, causing fuel shortages that prompted bans on diesel and gasoline exports. [5] These strikes contribute to a federal budget deficit that stands at $82 billion. [5] Ukrainian forces have expanded targets to include warehouses of online retailers like Ozon and Wildberries. [5] Strikes against Russian logistics in the Black Sea have forced Moscow to seek more expensive routes for grain exports. [5] Russia produces about 130 million tons of grain per year, with about 80 million tons for domestic needs and the rest for foreign markets, much of which is now blocked. [5]
Ukrainian intelligence warns Russia can sustain war against Ukraine through 2028. — Source: newsmax
Prospects for Winter De-escalation
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the US is considering whether the war could be de-escalated during the winter, potentially leading to a peace agreement. [2] Zelenskyy shared these details in comments to Axios regarding possible US considerations for a winter thaw in the conflict. [2] Ukrainian MP Lisa Yasko expressed no trust in recent US-mediated talks with Russia. [3] She stated that Putin has zero interest in ending the war and described US envoy comments as disgraceful. [3] Yasko commented on US envoy Steve Witkoff's remarks touting progress in weekend discussions, noting that the flattery towards Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared disgraceful. [3] She added that the current situation shows Putin has zero interest in ending the war. [3]
Ukrainian Drone Production Expansion
A joint venture will begin manufacturing Ukrainian Bars jet-powered drones in Europe in early September. [4] First deliveries to Ukrainian forces are scheduled from 10 October. [4] The drones have a 1,000 km strike range, speeds over 700 km/h, and use AI for terminal guidance. [4] The Bars can carry a warhead weighing up to 60 kg and operates as a modular platform for long-range, mid-range, or short-range strikes depending on fuel and warhead weight. [4] More than 74% of the Bars drones are locally produced, and the company has completed final tests of an engine of its own manufacture. [4] The only constraint on scaling production is the lead time for supplying turbojet engines purchased around the world. [4] In July, Ukraine and Germany signed an agreement on the joint production of Bars drones, with the German side financing production at the first stage and all equipment handed over to Ukrainian defence forces. [4]
Ukrainian MP Yasko says Putin has zero interest in ending the war. — Source: france24
Strategic Context of Ukrainian Strikes
Kyiv's wartime strategy centers around long-range drone strikes against Russian refineries, oil depots, factories, and tankers. [5] These strikes aim to undercut the Kremlin's revenues and increase economic pressure on Russia. [5] Ukrainian strikes are contributing to Russia's budget deficit amid record military spending. [5] The intelligence chief underscored the impact of strikes on Russian logistics, which have blocked significant portions of grain exports that sustain the Russian economy. [5] Record military spending has driven Russia's budget deficit, which soared by 40% in the first half of the year even as Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed the situation is not critical. [5]
Ukrainian MP Skepticism on Diplomatic Progress
Ukrainian MP Lisa Yasko said that what is seen right now is that Putin has zero interest in ending the war. [3] She expressed that Ukrainian officials do not trust these talks following the US envoy's comments. [3] The remarks came after US envoy Steve Witkoff touted progress in weekend discussions with Ukraine and Russia, raising the prospect of reviving three-way peace talks. [3] Yasko described the US envoys' flattery towards Russian President Vladimir Putin as disgraceful in the context of these efforts. [3]
What to watch next
Observers will monitor whether Ukrainian strikes continue to disable portions of Russian oil-refining infrastructure and whether the joint Bars drone production in Europe delivers units starting in October as planned.
