46,000 Displaced as Houthis Take Control of Yemen Red Sea Coast in Most Dangerous Countries

Houthi rebels have seized control of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coast including the strategic port city of Mocha and islands in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, displacing more than 46,000 people and raising fears that Iran now exerts influence over two critical global maritime chokepoints in most dangerous countries. [1] The advance has taken observers by surprise and is the group’s most significant military gain in years despite years of Saudi air raids and US-UK strikes. [3]

Houthi Forces Seize Red Sea Coast

Houthi forces captured Mocha on Thursday and a strategically located island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, giving them control of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coast. [1] According to some estimates, the Iranian-backed rebels have captured as much as 130km of the country’s strategically important coastline. [3] The Houthis’ lightning advance across the southern reaches of the Tihamah appears to have taken most observers by surprise. [3] Until recently, the anti-Houthi coalition known as the National Resistance held significant territory along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, but in a matter of days much of this has fallen to the Houthis. [3] It is the group’s most impressive military coup for several years, proving that despite a civil war that has lasted 12 years, devastating Saudi air raids and attacks by American, Israeli and British forces, the Houthis remain a force to be reckoned with. [3]

Displacement Reaches 46,000 and Rising

More than 46,000 people have been driven from their homes in Yemen in the wake of the latest escalation in fighting between Houthi rebels and government forces, according to United Nations data. [1] The International Organisation for Migration warned that the figure is rising “by the hour” in a statement issued on Friday. [1] Families are being forced to flee for the second or third time in this conflict, with almost nothing left, said Amy Pope, head of the IOM. [1] Many people had reportedly fled Mocha with their belongings overnight after the Iran-allied Houthi rebels captured the strategically important Red Sea port city from the internationally recognised government on Thursday. [1] Entire villages were said to have been abandoned in some areas of the war-torn country. [1] The UN also voiced concern over the Houthis seizing a key humanitarian compound and its assets in Mocha. [1]

Iran’s Growing Influence Through Proxies

Iran is reported to have hundreds of IRGC officers assisting the Houthis with the aim of blocking the strait. [2] Iranian hardliners have pushed for greater support to proxies following setbacks elsewhere. [3] The Houthis enjoy the backing of Iran, support that has become even more important for Tehran in the wake of the setbacks and defeats experienced by other parts of its so-called Axis of Resistance. [3] Iran redirected resources to the Houthis after those setbacks. [3] Events of the past few days raise an uncomfortable new reality that the regime in Tehran now exerts authority over not just one, but two of the world’s most important maritime passages. [3]

US and Saudi Response Remains Limited

The US has deployed over 100 military advisers to Saudi Arabia for intelligence and targeting support but is avoiding direct involvement. [2] More than 100 US military advisers are stationed in Saudi Arabia to provide intelligence and targeting support similar to systems used by the Pentagon. [2] US officials are increasingly concerned about the escalating conflict in Yemen and are working to intensify support for the kingdom while simultaneously seeking to avoid direct military involvement. [3] Appeals for US intervention from the Saudi Crown Prince have so far gone unanswered. [3] Saudi Arabia is reluctant to launch deep strikes inside Yemen and only provides logistical, weapons and intelligence support, with air raids concentrated on the northern border areas. [2]

Humanitarian and Economic Warnings

The UN called on all parties to the conflict to guarantee safe humanitarian access and protect civilians, aid workers and humanitarian assets on the ground. [1] The compound seized by the Houthis houses staff of UN agencies working to provide humanitarian assistance to vulnerable communities in the area. [1] All UN personnel working at the compound had left before the seizure and were safe and accounted for. [1] Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemen researcher at the London-based Chatham House thinktank, warned that the latest escalation will create two new crises, one being further internal displacement and the other being rising prices for goods inside Yemen. [1] Yemen was already going through one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, and the war continued despite the fragile truce, resulting in the destruction of what remained of the economy. [1]

Risk of Wider Regional Conflict

Analysts warn the escalation creates new crises of internal displacement and rising goods prices and gives Iran leverage over more than 35 percent of global fuel and oil trade comparable to a nuclear bomb. [3] Now Iran, directly and through proxies, controls two of the most strategic choke points in the Middle East and the world. [3] Shipping in the Red Sea is highly vulnerable to Houthi missiles, drones and small attack boats. [3] The fighting adds a dangerous new dimension to the US-Iran war, threatens shipping, and could draw in further outside intervention. [3] With Yemen teetering on the edge of a return to all-out war, Saudi Arabia anxious about preserving its economic lifeline to the Red Sea and Donald Trump apparently reluctant to get involved, America’s conflict with Iran just took on a new and potentially dangerous dimension. [3]

What to watch next: The Houthis are unlikely to be dislodged any time soon and will be entrenched, making any push to remove them more costly, while shipping companies assess risks to navigation in the Bab al-Mandeb amid continued US reluctance to escalate direct involvement. [3]