Saudi-Emirati Rift Deepens Over Yemen's Southern Future Amid Riyadh Conference Push
Riyadh/Sanaa – Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the trajectory of Yemen's civil war have intensified, with Riyadh convening a conference on southern Yemen's political future while Abu Dhabi engages Oman in talks on regional stability. The developments, emerging since early January 2026, underscore fractures within the Saudi-led coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015, potentially reshaping Gulf alliances.
Saudi Arabia has invited representatives from all Yemeni factions operating outside Houthi-controlled areas to a conference in Riyadh focused on the "southern issue." The announcement aims to address longstanding divisions in southern Yemen, where the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) advocates for greater autonomy or independence, clashing with Saudi preferences for a unified Yemeni state under the internationally recognized government.
The STC, a separatist-leaning group that controls much of southern Yemen including the key port city of Aden, has pledged full support for the Riyadh talks. In a statement reported on January 5, 2026, STC officials affirmed their readiness "to ensure the success" of the conference, signaling a willingness to engage despite underlying rivalries. This comes as Riyadh seeks to consolidate influence in non-Houthi territories amid a fragile truce with the Iran-backed Houthis, who continue to hold the capital Sanaa and much of the north.
Parallel diplomatic maneuvers highlight the strain. On the same day, top diplomats from Oman and the UAE held discussions explicitly addressing "regional stability amid tensions over Yemen," following reports of a deepening rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi met with his UAE counterpart, Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, in Muscat, where the conversation centered on de-escalating Gulf divisions exacerbated by divergent Yemen strategies. Oman, a neutral mediator in the conflict, has long hosted proximity talks between Yemeni parties and maintains ties with all sides, including the Houthis.
These events mark a notable escalation in Saudi-Emirati frictions that began surfacing in 2019, when UAE forces withdrew from frontline positions, shifting focus to backing the STC. Saudi Arabia, bearing the brunt of the coalition's military campaign against the Houthis, has prioritized restoring the Saudi-supported Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) – a body formed in 2022 to unify anti-Houthi efforts. The UAE's alignment with the STC, however, has led to clashes, including the STC's 2019 takeover of Aden from PLC-allied forces.
Background: A Fractured Coalition in Yemen's Decade-Long War
Yemen's conflict erupted in 2014 when Houthi rebels seized Sanaa, prompting the ousted government to flee to Aden and seek Gulf intervention. The Saudi-led coalition, launched in March 2015 with UAE participation, aimed to reinstate President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and counter perceived Iranian influence via the Houthis. The war has killed over 377,000 people by UN estimates, mostly from indirect causes like famine and disease, and displaced millions.
Early unity gave way to divergence: Saudi Arabia pursued airstrikes and ground support for unity forces, while the UAE invested in southern security belts, fostering the STC's rise in 2017. A 2022 Saudi-UAE reconciliation pact briefly papered over differences, but competition for ports like Aden and Socotra – vital for Red Sea trade and potential energy routes – persists. The Houthis' resilience, bolstered by drones and missiles, has forced both powers to scale back direct involvement, relying instead on proxies.
Recent Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping since late 2023 have renewed international focus, with U.S. and UK strikes weakening but not defeating the group. A UN-brokered truce since April 2022 has held unevenly, but southern infighting threatens progress toward a comprehensive peace.
Implications for Regional Dynamics
The Riyadh conference represents Saudi Arabia's bid to reassert leadership, potentially sidelining UAE influence if the STC's participation leads to concessions on southern governance. Analysts note that success could stabilize anti-Houthi fronts, enabling focus on economic recovery in government-held areas, which control 80% of Yemen's GDP-generating ports.
Conversely, the Oman-UAE dialogue suggests Abu Dhabi is hedging, leveraging Omani neutrality to mitigate fallout from the Saudi rift. Oman's role is pivotal; it facilitated the 2023 prisoner swap between Houthis and the PLC and hosts Houthi offices.
Broader Gulf realignments loom. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has pursued détente with Iran since 2023, reducing reliance on UAE military synergies. For the UAE, Yemen remains a strategic foothold against Iranian expansionism and a hub for its ports operator DP World.
As the Riyadh talks approach, stakeholders watch for breakthroughs or breakdowns. Yemeni officials from the PLC have cautiously welcomed the invitation, but STC dominance in the south could tilt outcomes toward federalism. With Houthis excluded due to their territorial control, the conference risks entrenching divisions unless paired with inclusive national dialogue.
The coming weeks will test whether Saudi-Emirati tensions fracture the anti-Houthi alliance or forge a pragmatic path forward, amid Yemen's humanitarian crisis where 18 million need aid. Regional stability hangs in the balance.
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