Iran Tensions Eased by Advancing Hormuz Talks, Rubio Says
Amid ongoing Iran tensions, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are advancing, following President Trump's warning, amid the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran that has strained US missile stockpiles and pushed up domestic gas prices. [1]
Hormuz Negotiations Advancing
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are making progress, offering the clearest sign yet that diplomacy could reopen one of the world's most important shipping lanes. [1] Rubio said negotiations between Oman and Iran, with US involvement, are making progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane. [1] This development follows President Trump's warning and comes as the clearest indication that talks could restore access to the vital waterway. [1]
US Precision Missile Stocks Depleted
The US military has nearly exhausted its stockpiles of precision long-range missiles including ATACMS, PrSM, nearly half of its Tomahawk cruise missiles, 65% of Patriot interceptors, and at least 38% of THAAD interceptors after five months of war with Iran. [4] [5] According to three sources close to the data, the US military has used nearly all of its precision long-range munitions in the five-month conflict with Iran. [4] The missiles in question are primarily Army ground-to-ground weapons known as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). [4] Two Reuters sources stated the US has used "nearly all" of these weapons. [4] The depletion of ATACMS and PrSM stockpiles had not been previously reported. [4] Long-range munitions form a key part of the Army's arsenal, enabling precision strikes from safe distances. [4] ATACMS systems supplied by the US played a central role in the Ukraine conflict. [4] PrSM is the newer, more advanced generation set to replace ATACMS, which has a shorter range. [4] Analysts note such weapons, costing more than $1 million each, would also prove critical in any conflict with China. [4] Sources declined to specify remaining quantities of each munition type. [4] A fourth source said that while US Central Command, which oversees forces in the Middle East, has nearly used up its pre-war ground-launched missiles, it could still draw from supplies elsewhere. [4] When asked about stockpile data, the White House issued a statement from Trump saying the US has "more ammunition than anyone in the world" and "more than needed." [4] Analysts agree some munitions, including artillery shells and certain missiles, are being produced at record levels but warn supplies could fall short of demand in a prolonged war. [4] In response to requests for comment on the data, Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said the US military is the strongest in the world and has everything needed to carry out missions at the time and place chosen by the president. [4] He added that the military has conducted many successful campaigns across combatant commands while ensuring a robust arsenal to protect people and interests. [4] A CSIS report estimated that from February to July, about 65% of Patriot interceptors had been expended and THAAD ballistic missile interceptor stocks were at least 38% lower than at the start of the war. [4] Patriot and THAAD systems detect and destroy incoming missiles and rank among the most effective in the US arsenal. [4] One source said the US has also used nearly half of its global Tomahawk cruise missile reserves since the war began. [4] Tomahawk missiles are Navy weapons launched from destroyers, cruisers, and submarines and have long served as the Navy's primary means to strike heavily defended targets without endangering pilots. [4] Raytheon, a unit of RTX, reached a preliminary multi-year agreement with the Pentagon to boost Tomahawk production along with other munitions as Washington rushes to rebuild stockpiles. [4]
Iran Claims Heavy Strikes on US Bases
Iranian military adviser Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei claimed Iranian forces delivered heavy blows to US bases in Iraq and Kuwait, forcing evacuations, and targeted southern Iran in violation of a prior memorandum on Hormuz sovereignty. [4] Rezaei said Iranian military forces delivered heavy blows to US bases in the region during the recent 17-day conflict. [4] He stated the conflict should be called the Third War or the 17-day Muharram War, in which Iran also delivered heavy blows to the US. [4] Rezaei added that for the world the war seems strange but for Iran it was predictable, and he had said in a special national television interview that Trump would tear up the memorandum of understanding with Islamabad, withdraw from it, and attack. [4] The adviser noted the US targeted southern Iran, violating the memorandum in which the US recognized Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. [4] He pointed to US bases in Iraq and Kuwait as examples of successful Iranian retaliatory attacks, saying the strikes forced the US to evacuate those two bases. [4]
White House Extends Jones Act Waiver
The White House is expected to extend the Jones Act waiver to increase shipping flexibility and help lower US gas prices averaging $4 per gallon, caused by the Iran war; the waiver has already been used nearly 200 times and is set to expire on August 16. [2] The White House is expected to extend the Jones Act waiver in the coming days as a tool to try to hold down gas prices as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran. [2] The century-old Jones Act requires cargo moving between US ports to be carried on ships built and owned by the US and operated by American workers. [2] The waiver aims to lower gas prices by increasing shipping flexibility and reducing transport bottlenecks. [2] The current waiver is set to expire on August 16, which is already the longest suspension of the Jones Act rules since it was enacted, and has been used nearly 200 times since the start of the Iran war. [2] This comes as Trump is running out of easy options to lower US oil prices, which are currently averaging at $4 a gallon, ahead of the midterm elections in November. [2] It also follows Trump's comments on Monday that oil companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron are making "too much money" off the surge in prices from the Iran war. [2]
Iran Seeks Pakistani Ports
Iran is exploring the use of two Pakistani ports to bypass the US blockade of its own ports and maintain trade routes. [3] Iran is exploring using two of Pakistan’s ports to keep trade moving amid the US blockade of its own ports, a senior Iranian official said on Tuesday. [3]
Broader Context of Prolonged Conflict
The five-month war duration stands against initial expectations of a short conflict, with concerns over US readiness for other adversaries and ongoing production efforts amid Iran tensions. [2] [4] President Donald Trump launched the war with Iran along with Israel in February with the expectation that the conflict would last only a short time. [4] As the war has dragged on, three people familiar with the issue expressed concern that dwindling missile supplies could limit the US ability to deter adversaries including Russia and China. [4] While production of some munitions is at record levels, analysts warn supplies could fall critically short of demand in a prolonged fight. [4] The Jones Act waiver extension aims to ease gas prices averaging $4 per gallon ahead of November midterms, linked to the Iran war's impact on oil. [2]
What to watch next: Negotiations between Oman and Iran with US involvement continue to advance on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the White House is set to extend the Jones Act waiver before its August 16 expiration, and Iran explores routing trade through two Pakistani ports to bypass the US blockade.
