Iran Strikes Damage More Than 50 Iranian Military Bases Since February as Hormuz Tensions Continue
US forces downed multiple Iranian one-way attack drones targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz early Saturday, even as both Washington and Tehran stated that a peace deal to end the Middle East war was closer than ever. [1]
Drone Interception in the Strait of Hormuz
US Central Command reported that Iran launched multiple one-way attack drones in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. [1] US forces downed all of them in recent hours as traffic flow through the strait continues unimpeded. [1] CENTCOM added that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for transit despite an Iranian-enforced blockade since the start of the war. [1] A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that US forces intercepted and shot down several Iranian attack drones that were heading toward the Strait of Hormuz and posed a potential threat to commercial shipping. [2] The source said the drones were moving toward the strategic waterway when they were detected and destroyed by US military forces. [2] Neither US nor Iranian officials have publicly commented further on the exact number of drones or the precise timing. [2] The incident came after weeks of halting talks between Tehran and Washington mediated by Pakistan that have been marked by threats and exchanges of fire despite a fragile truce agreed in April. [1]
US forces intercept Iranian attack drones targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. — Source: khaamapress
Status of Peace Negotiations
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted that the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. [1] Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed that a final agreed-upon text of the peace deal has been reached and said peace has never been as close as it is now. [1] A senior US official voiced optimism that the parties would be signing this agreement over the next few days and raised the in signing the agreement to 80-85 percent. [1] Iranian state media noted that until a complete agreement was reached on all issues it cannot be said with certainty that an understanding has been achieved with the United States. [1] The Swiss foreign ministry said it had been in contact with both the United States and Iran and had proposed Switzerland as the venue for a possible signing should the parties agree to it. [1] Araghchi said that upon finalisation a draft deal with the United States would be signed remotely and that this could happen in the coming days. [1]
Key Terms and Disagreements in the Proposed Deal
Araghchi said in an interview with state television that the agreement calls for the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iran's ports and unspecified changes to the administration of the Strait of Hormuz. [1] He also said the only way to deal with the country's enriched uranium is to dilute it inside Iran. [1] According to Iran's IRNA news agency after an initial agreement is signed Iran and the United States would hold 60 more days of talks and Iran's right to enrich uranium and the retention of enriched material will be emphasised with a view to their inclusion in the final agreement. [1] Iran's Mehr news agency quoting a source close to the country's negotiating team said the deal would also see the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. [1] A senior White House official told AFP that Iran had agreed to dismantle its nuclear programme destroy its enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the strait and that Tehran would not see any of its frozen funds returned until it had honoured these commitments. [1] US Vice President JD Vance said Iran is not receiving any cash and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting but added that if Iran meets its obligations then economic benefits will flow to them and to the entire region. [1]
Extent of Damage from Prior Strikes
Satellite imagery reviewed by BBC Verify shows damage to more than 50 Iranian military bases including IRGC headquarters airbases naval facilities and missile sites from prior US and Israeli strikes since the war started on February 28. [3] US officials state they have attacked more than 13,000 targets in Iran since the conflict began on February 28. [3] Images reviewed by BBC Verify reveal damage in more than a dozen locations to runways and aircraft contributing to US control of Iranian airspace. [3] At Mehrabad International Airport attacks on March 7 destroyed at least 17 aircraft in the military section while at the Shiraz airbase US and Israeli attacks between April 2 and April 17 impacted at least 13 aircraft. [3] Attacks also targeted Iran's naval fleet with damage to numerous vessels and buildings at the Bandar Abbas naval base in the early days of the war. [3] Images showed a dense column of smoke rising from a damaged vessel and the administrative section of the port on March 4 while several vessels also suffered severe damage at the Konarak naval base. [3] Images appear to show extensive damage to the naval headquarters and IRGC naval headquarters in the eastern suburbs of Tehran. [3] The commander of the naval force General Alireza Tangsiri died in an Israeli operation at the end of March. [3] Despite the strikes some images reviewed by BBC Verify appear to show that Tehran has been using the fragile truce to repair tunnel entrances at some key missile sites. [3]
Satellite images reveal damage to over 50 Iranian military bases from US and Israeli strikes. — Source: gdelt
Regional and Economic Context
The exchanges of fire came after a US Army attack helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz after colliding with an Iranian drone according to a US official. [4] It was not clear whether the collision was intentional. [4] On Friday Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported that warning shots had been fired at what it described as violating vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. [2] Residents in several coastal areas of Hormozgan province including Qeshm Jask and Sirik reported hearing sounds resembling explosions though no impacts or damage were recorded. [2] Brent crude oil the international standard was at more than 91 dollars a barrel on Wednesday up more than 25 percent since the start of the war. [4] The conflict has shaken the global economy driven up energy prices around the world and made many basics including food more expensive. [4] Experts told BBC Verify that despite the hard blows suffered by the navy and air force Tehran still has the capacity to damage the United States and its regional allies through missiles or drones. [3] The fleet of mosquitoes composed of small fast boats will allow Iran to continue posing a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz according to Raphael Cohen of RAND. [3]
Prospects for Agreement Finalization
Mediation efforts led predominantly by Pakistan have been trying for weeks to get a deal across the line. [4] Araghchi said the management of the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-war state and Tehran will charge a service fee for vessels passing through. [5] The United States maintains that the Strait of Hormuz must be returned to free transit as an international waterway. [5] Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said an agreement had now been reached with Washington on most points. [1] The senior US official told reporters the was more like 80-85 percent now but it is not 100 percent. [1] Disagreements persist over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile management of the Strait of Hormuz release of frozen assets and the nuclear programme. [1]
What to watch next: Officials have indicated that a remote signing of a draft deal could occur in the coming days while satellite imagery continues to show repair work at several ballistic missile bases during the fragile truce.
