Ethiopian forces and Tigray fighters clash in western Tigray

Fighting has broken out in western Tigray between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan fighters, marking one of the most serious breaches of the 2022 Pretoria peace deal. [1]

Clashes erupt near Sheraro

Tigray’s regional government said federal forces opened the assault at dawn on Saturday advancing from the direction of Sheraro near the Sudanese border. [1] A senior Tigray People’s Liberation Front official told AFP that the federal government launched an attack this morning against Tigrayan forces in Shererina close to the border with Sudan and that the combat was still going on. [5] The fighting which involves heavy artillery is taking place in western Tigray a disputed area administered by nationalists from the neighboring regional state of Amhara. [5] Tigray’s regional government said in a statement from Mekelle the Tigrayan capital that federal forces opened the assault at dawn on Saturday advancing from the direction of Sheraro near the Sudanese border. [1] The TPLF in a statement Saturday accused the federal army of perpetrating against the people of Tigray for a long time and having escalated its destructive actions to a higher level it has launched a wide-ranging infantry offensive. [5]

Accusations over who started the fighting

Abraham Belay who led Tigray’s transitional government during the war confirmed the clashes but accused TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael’s forces of starting them. [1] Abraham Belay said enough war let us resolve our differences through dialogue in a post on Facebook. [1] Getachew Reda a former TPLF spokesman who now advises Abiy urged the Tigray Defence Forces commanders to abandon Debretsion accusing him of relying on Eritrea and Amhara’s Fano militia to force his way back to power. [1] Both sides have accused each other of failing to implement the provisions of the 2022 peace agreement. [1] Tigrayan authorities said Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party has waged a long blockade and drone campaign against the region adding that this had now escalated into full-scale war. [1] The regional government urged Tigrayan forces civil society and religious institutions to prepare for a struggle it called one of national survival using the slogan No to National Destruction. [1]

Context of the Pretoria peace deal

The fighting follows months of deteriorating relations between Addis Ababa and the TPLF the party that ruled Ethiopia for nearly three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. [1] The deal halted the war between the two parties but left the core reasons of conflict between Mekelle and Addis unresolved. [1] The conflict claimed at least 600,000 lives between 2020 and 2022 according to an African Union estimate. [5] The TPLF had ruled Ethiopia for nearly 30 years before being challenged and then sidelined when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. [5] Tigray a region of around six million inhabitants has emerged from a war that pitted the TPLF against Ethiopian forces backed by local militias and the Eritrean army. [5] Both sides have accused each other of failing to implement the provisions of the 2022 peace agreement. [1] Tigrayan authorities said Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party has waged a long blockade and drone campaign against the region adding that this had now escalated into full-scale war. [1]

Warnings from analysts and officials

Kjetil Tronvoll an Ethiopia specialist at Oslo New University College told Al Jazeera that the fighting marked the most serious incident since the 2022 peace deal. [1] Kjetil Tronvoll a regional specialist at Oslo New University College warned this is a clear military escalation and the most serious confrontation in northern Ethiopia for some time. [5] Kjetil Tronvoll added at this stage the attack could represent either the start of a wider military campaign or a coercive show of force intended to deter the Tigrayan side from further escalation. [5] Reda and Redwan Hussein Ethiopia’s intelligence chief who signed the Pretoria deal for TPLF and the federal government respectively in 2022 co-wrote an Al Jazeera op-ed in June warning that war was imminent. [1] In the days running up to the armed clashes Ethiopian state media ran a campaign accusing Debretsion by name of rallying Tigrayans toward war. [1]

International response and outlook

In June the United States imposed visa restrictions on what it said were TPLF hardliners accused of blocking peace. [1] The TPLF described it as being based on an incomplete and imbalanced picture of the standoff. [1] By mid-July TPLF had declared the Pretoria agreement effectively dead even as US Ambassador Ervin Massinga travelled to Mekelle to try to preserve the deal. [1] Faisal Roble a regional analyst told Al Jazeera that the beginning of the fighting was a sign that efforts to resolve the dispute between the parties by the US had not succeeded. [1] Without a powerful international intervention he said we could be heading to a much larger war. [1]

What to watch next: Analysts have warned that the clashes mark the most serious incident since the 2022 peace deal and that without powerful international intervention a much larger war could follow.