Russia war and military activity: live conflict tracking and global threat monitoring

Russia maintains the world's largest nuclear arsenal with an estimated 5,580 total warheads (of which approximately 1,710 are deployed strategic warheads, per SIPRI Yearbook 2024) and the second-largest conventional military by active personnel. Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has been engaged in the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II, committing hundreds of thousands of troops and depleting significant portions of its conventional weapons stockpiles.

Despite heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia continues to project military power globally — maintaining naval bases in Syria (Tartus) and potentially expanding its presence in Africa, conducting strategic bomber patrols near NATO airspace, and operating submarine fleets in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic. Russia's military-industrial complex has shifted to wartime production, manufacturing tanks, missiles, and ammunition at rates that have exceeded pre-war levels.

Track Russian military activity on our conflict map, see the Ukraine war tracker, and monitor the broader escalation picture on our WW3 risk map.

Russia's borders with NATO have become some of the most militarized in the world since the Ukraine invasion. Finland's NATO accession (April 2023) added 1,340 km of new NATO-Russia border, and Sweden's membership further strengthened the alliance's northern flank. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Poland have significantly increased defense spending and host NATO battle groups.

The Suwalki Gap — a 65-km stretch of Polish-Lithuanian border between Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave — is considered NATO's most vulnerable point. Russia has deployed Iskander nuclear-capable missiles in Kaliningrad and conducted large-scale military exercises simulating conflict with NATO in the Baltic region.

Incidents between Russian and NATO military assets have increased: close encounters between fighter jets over the Baltic Sea, GPS jamming affecting civilian aviation in Northern Europe, and and undersea infrastructure threats (including the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions). See the Ukraine war tracker for frontline developments and Belarus tracker for the Suwalki Gap situation.

Russia's international isolation over the Ukraine war has accelerated the formation of a Russia-China-Iran partnership that challenges the Western-led international order. While not a formal military alliance, the three countries cooperate on defense, intelligence, and economic matters to an unprecedented degree.

China provides Russia with critical economic lifeline — purchasing Russian oil and gas at discounted prices, supplying dual-use technology, and serving as a sanctions workaround for Russian trade. Joint military exercises have expanded in scope and frequency. Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed kamikaze drones used extensively in Ukraine, while North Korea has provided artillery ammunition and reportedly combat troops.

This emerging bloc represents a significant shift in global power dynamics, with implications for conflicts from Ukraine to Taiwan to the Middle East. Track these interconnections on our Catalyst platform.

Russia is militarizing the Arctic at an accelerating pace, reopening Soviet-era bases and building new military infrastructure across its northern coast. As climate change opens new shipping routes and exposes resources, the Arctic has become a zone of strategic competition between Russia, NATO allies (US, Canada, Norway, Denmark), and China (which declared itself a "near-Arctic state").

Russia's Northern Fleet, headquartered in Murmansk, operates nuclear-powered submarines carrying ballistic missiles — a cornerstone of Russia's nuclear deterrent. Russian submarine activity in the Atlantic has reached levels not seen since the Cold War, prompting NATO to re-establish anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

Beyond the Arctic, Russia maintains military presence in Syria (air and naval bases), has expanded influence in Africa through Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) deployments in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Libya, Sudan, CAR, and Mozambique, and maintains alliances with Belarus and military partnerships across Central Asia. Russia frames its foreign policy as resistance to Western "unipolarity," though critics — including many of its own neighbors — view its actions as imperial aggression. For comprehensive data on Russian military capabilities, see the IISS Military Balance.