Iran Tensions Rise as New Supreme Leader Vows Revenge After Trump Missile Threat

Iran tensions have escalated sharply after Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed revenge for the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hours after US President Donald Trump threatened to unleash 1000 missiles and completely decimate Iran if Tehran attempts to assassinate him. [1] [5]

Khamenei Vows Revenge for Father’s Assassination

In the first message since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral, Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed revenge for the killing of his father. [1] He said, “We pledge to avenge your pure blood, and the blood of all the martyrs of these two wars, upon the criminal and disgraced killers.” [3] Khamenei emphasised that this revenge is the demand of the nation and must certainly be carried out, adding that the matter depends neither on his personal existence nor on that of other officials. [5] He stated that soon individuals among the free people of the world will each carry out a part of this divine mission. [3] Hours earlier, President Donald Trump had written on his Truth Social platform that 1000 missiles are locked and loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands more to immediately follow should the Iranian government act on its threat to assassinate him. [4] Trump added that orders have already been given and the US military is ready, willing, and able for a one-year period of time, subject to extension, to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran. [2]

Escalation Follows Collapse of June Understanding

Both sides dialled up the rhetoric after exchanges of fire this week rocked a memorandum of understanding reached in June this year between Washington and Tehran. [1] The immediate trigger was Iran firing warning shots at vessels using a US-backed alternative route along Oman’s coast, which Tehran viewed as violating its interpretation of the MoU granting it authority over the strait for 60 days. [2] Washington interpreted the incident as interference with freedom of navigation and used it to justify renewed military strikes against Iranian targets. [2] Tehran’s UN ambassador said that if the United States continues to violate its obligations under the Islamabad Understanding, Iran will no longer consider itself bound by its commitments under that understanding. [2] Trump has declared the ceasefire over following the latest exchange of attacks between the two sides earlier this week. [3]

Dispute Centers on Strait of Hormuz Authority

Iran’s insistence on managing shipping routes and rejecting foreign interference clashed with the US position supporting alternative routes and demanding public assurances that the strait remains open without attacks on vessels. [2] The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated traffic in the strait has recovered to 50 percent of pre-war levels through Iran’s cooperation, but ships must use designated routes with no foreign management role. [3] Iran has established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to implement this policy and coordinate authorised transit. [3] Tehran also considers any movement through a US-backed southern route crossing near Oman to have run counter to the memorandum of understanding reached between the two sides last month. [3] Iran insists on controlling the passage of ships and has announced plans to charge fees, saying there will be no return to the free navigation of the pre-war era. [5]

Diplomatic Efforts Continue Amid Threats

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman for talks on administering the Strait of Hormuz, while Qatari mediators visited Iran to de-escalate tensions. [1] On Friday, Qatari mediators visited Iran for meetings aimed at de-escalating tension with the US, while on Saturday Iranian Foreign Minister travelled to Oman for talks. [3] Trump said he believes he is first on the kill list for Iran and that he has left instructions to retaliate if an attempt on his life was made, yet he also said mediated talks could continue. [3] Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf struck a defiant tone, saying ending the war is a priority for the countries of the world but everyone must know that this confrontation will never end with Iran’s surrender. [5] Ali Vaez of the Crisis Group said revenge rhetoric is for domestic consumption while diplomacy is aimed at preventing another punishing round of war. [3]

International Reactions and New US Sanctions

The UN’s International Maritime Organization condemned Iran’s establishment of a Persian Gulf Strait Authority and rejected its claims of sovereignty or jurisdiction over the strait and third states’ maritime zones. [3] The governing council of the IMO on Friday strongly condemned Iran’s decision to establish an entity purporting to control traffic through the strait and called on its 176 member states not to recognise Iran’s claim of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. [3] The US imposed new sanctions on individuals and entities linked to the attacks on international shipping, including a financial facilitator connected to Mojtaba Khamenei. [3] The US Department of the Treasury imposed its first new sanctions related to Iran since the signing of the MoU on June 17, designating several individuals and entities in stated retaliation for attacks on international shipping in the strait. [3] Negar Mortazavi said there may be internal disagreements in Tehran over tactics and the level of military pressure but added the Hormuz confrontation is rooted in a broader dispute over the implementation of the MoU. [3]

Casualties and Regional Fallout

The US strikes killed 17 people, Tehran’s health ministry said on Saturday, and injured 115 more. [5] They also triggered a wave of reprisals by Iran against US-allied countries in the Gulf that host American military bases. [5] In Lebanon, Israeli strikes persisted overnight, including an airstrike targeting the outskirts of Nabatieh. [1] These military actions were provoked by Iran's assault on three vessels in the strait earlier this week. [4]

What to watch next: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to either publicly admit or implicitly acknowledge after his meetings in Oman whether hitting the tankers and commercial ships earlier this week was a mistake, while Washington has given Tehran until Saturday to stop firing on commercial ships transiting Hormuz and acknowledge the waterway is open.