Vance Says Russian Offensive Capabilities in Ukraine Near Zero as Defense Strategy Gains Ground
US Vice President JD Vance stated that Russian offensive capabilities in Ukraine are approaching zero as Ukraine's defensive successes create conditions to end the war, while separate conflicts show Israel preparing for renewed fighting in Gaza within months and Iran's regime emerging consolidated after its war with the US and Israel.
Vance Assesses Russian Offensive Limits in Ukraine
US Vice President JD Vance said Russia's sustained offensive operations achieve negligible gains and are approaching zero, attributing this to Ukraine shifting to a defensive posture encouraged by the US and NATO. [1] Vance revealed that when he studied the war between Russia and Ukraine, it seemed obvious to him that given the proliferation of drones and surveillance technology, it made more sense for Ukraine to hold its positions and exhaust Russia rather than launch costly offensive operations aimed at recapturing occupied territories. [1] He added that the Russians are paying a high price for every square kilometre they capture, which he attributed to the US and NATO encouraging Ukraine to focus more on defence – an approach that has proved effective. [1] Vance described Ukraine's 2023 large-scale counteroffensive, pushed by the West including then-President Biden, as a strategic and tactical disaster. [1] Reminiscing about the summer of 2023, Vance said that the main subject of debate was whether Ukraine should attempt a large-scale counteroffensive. [1] He noted that the entire Western world, including then president Joe Biden, was pressuring the Ukrainians to launch a large-scale counteroffensive, which, as it turned out, was a strategic and tactical disaster. [1] Vance added that the Trump administration leans towards the view that the Ukrainians should focus as much as possible on defence, in parallel with negotiations. [1] Vance said the approach has borne far more fruit, as it is easier to defend than to attack, allowing Ukrainians to make better use of their tactical advantage. [1] He added that Russia is now in a position where what it can achieve through sustained offensive operations is negligible and approaching zero, which could create the space needed to bring the situation to a conclusion. [1] The Russians are now in a situation where their offensive operations are achieving almost nothing on the battlefield, while Ukraine's successes are helping to create the conditions needed to end the war. [1] Vance believes the shift has created conditions that could allow negotiations to move forward under the current US approach.
Kremlin Declares Full-Scale War Against the West
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared that Russia's special military operation has become a full war because Ukraine is backed by Western capitals including Berlin, Paris, Washington, which provide targeting via satellites and infrastructure. [3] Peskov stated that what began as a special military operation has now turned into a real war. [3] He explained the reason by pointing to direct involvement from multiple Western capitals. [3] Peskov said the conflict continues as a war because behind Kyiv stand Berlin, Paris, The Hague, Oslo, and unfortunately Washington. [3] The Kremlin spokesman emphasized that Western countries assist Ukrainian forces in selecting and striking targets. [3] Peskov noted that they help aim through their satellites and guide foreign weapons to Russian targets through their entire infrastructure. [3] This statement marks a further hardening of Russia's position toward NATO states. [3] Moscow has long claimed that the war in Ukraine is not fought solely between Russia and Kyiv but between Russia and the Western military system that supplies Ukraine with weapons, training, intelligence, and technical support. [3] Peskov's message now advances one step further by stating openly that the special military operation has grown into a war precisely because Western military machinery stands behind Ukraine. [3]
Israeli forces prepare for potential return to Gaza operations within months. — Source: middleeasteye
Israel Prepares for Return to Gaza Fighting
Israeli officials expect the US-led Board of Peace to rule within two to three months that Hamas has breached the ceasefire by refusing to disarm, potentially allowing renewed Israeli raids in Gaza before October elections. [2] Israel believes fighting in Gaza could resume within the next two months, potentially before October's elections, according to a report by Israel's Channel 12. [2] The broadcaster, citing Israeli officials, said that Israel expects the US-led Board of Peace to conclude within the next two to three months that Hamas has violated the agreement by refusing to disarm. [2] Such a ruling could pave the way for Israel to renew raids in parts of Gaza outside their current control, raising the prospect of renewed fighting. [2] Channel 12 also quoted a political source as saying the board's director-general, Nikolay Mladenov, had considered declaring Hamas in breach of the agreement two months ago but postponed the move at the request of mediators. [2] The source indicated that if nothing changes within three months, Mladenov will declare Hamas in breach of the agreement. [2] The Board of Peace, chaired by US President Donald Trump, was established in January under a US initiative aimed at securing a settlement in Gaza. [2] It followed the ceasefire agreement reached in October, which was intended to end the two-year conflict in Gaza. [2] Despite the ceasefire, Israel has repeatedly violated the agreement, killing more than 1,000 Palestinians since then, expanding the so-called buffer zone and maintaining tight restrictions on humanitarian aid. [2] Hamas has refused to discuss disarmament until Israel fulfils its obligations under the first phase of the agreement. [2]
Iran's Leadership Emerges Consolidated After Conflict
Iran's regime, now led by Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC-linked figures, presents itself as strengthened after the conflict with the US and Israel despite economic damage, with a new generation of younger, more pragmatic but repressive leaders. [4] Four months after the end of the conflict with the United States and Israel, authorities in Tehran are trying to send a clear message that the Islamic Republic not only survived but considers itself strengthened by the confrontation. [4] State funerals organized for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader killed in an air attack during the war, became a symbolic moment for the new Iranian leadership. [4] Instead of the image of a regime on the brink of collapse, the ceremony suggests continuity of institutions and consolidation of a new generation of leaders. [4] At the center of the new power structure is Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former supreme leader and his successor. [4] Although he is said to have been wounded in the same attack that killed his father, he continues to lead from secure locations and avoids public appearances. [4] Western experts assess that the new leadership consists of younger officials who have gained experience in the security apparatus and military structures of the Islamic Republic. [4] Unlike the generation of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, they are described as more pragmatic in using instruments of influence, from diplomacy to online communication campaigns, without abandoning repressive methods of internal control. [4] Several of the new leaders come from the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or security services. [4] Among them are Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ahmad Vahidi, appointed to lead the Revolutionary Guards, and Mohsen Rezaei, who became the supreme leader's principal military adviser. [4] Experts maintain that most of these individuals built their careers in structures involved in suppressing internal protests, coordinating Iran's allied groups in the region, and developing the military apparatus of the Islamic Republic. [4] At the same time, leaders considered more moderate have lost influence. [4] Among them are President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who previously played an important role in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. [4]
Kremlin states its special military operation in Ukraine has evolved into full war. — Source: gdelt
Iranian Public Voices Uncertainty and Mixed Views on Outcome
Iranian women expressed mixed views on whether the war is truly over, regime strength, public pride or skepticism, and limited gains in women's freedoms. [5] One woman named Parya, aged 30, wrote that she believes the war is over for now but also thinks it could start again soon. [5] Another woman, Mehrnaz, 26, from Tehran, said the mood in Tehran is marked by much uncertainty. [5] She added that no one can know if the war is over and that people are just trying to survive. [5] A teenage mother who wished to be called Yasamin was more optimistic, stating that people can make plans again because it finally looks like the war is over, though they are not entirely sure because much can go wrong with the negotiations. [5] Some commentators have written that Iran has in a way won while Israel and the USA stand back as losers after the war they themselves started on 28 February this year. [5] Mehrnaz believes Iran's response, tactics, and pressure have shown that Iran is more powerful than the rest of the world thought. [5] She estimated that perhaps one fifth of the population believes Iran is the winner of the war. [5] Yasamin said many Iranians feel a sense of pride now because the world had no idea how strong Iran was militarily. [5] She noted that even Iranians did not believe their ability to defend themselves and strike back was so strong. [5] Yasamin added that Israel has received military and economic support from the USA for years while Iran received no help from outside. [5] She believes Trump wants out of the war because it creates problems for him at home, so Iran holds the best cards in the negotiations. [5] Yasamin said the regime has no credible political vision or solutions and that improving the economy is necessary to better people's lives. [5] Mehrnaz also believes the regime has not become more popular and that things will not improve in Iran after the war. [5] A musician named Leyla, who participated in winter demonstrations, was arrested and still mourns those killed, said she believes the Iranian people lost the war. [5] She added that the Islamic Republic is significantly weakened now because much of the military leadership has been eliminated. [5] Leyla said the regime's slogans and ideological goals have collapsed. [5] On the other hand, women noted that many now appear in the streets of Tehran without hijab and that the morality police seem to leave women alone. [5] Yasamin said this gives a breathing space, especially for young women. [5] Mehrnaz agreed that women have won more freedom since the Mahsa revolution but added that this is a freedom they have fought hard for over many years. [5]
Prospects for Negotiations Across Conflicts
Vance said the Trump administration leans towards the view that the Ukrainians should focus as much as possible on defence, in parallel with negotiations. [1] He added that the approach has borne far more fruit. [1] Following a conversation with US President Donald Trump, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there is a real prospect of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. [1] At the end of June, Trump said Zelenskyy is doing pretty well in the war against Russia. [1] The US State Department also said Ukraine currently has the advantage in the war. [1] In Gaza, the Board of Peace was established in January under a US initiative aimed at securing a settlement. [2] It followed the ceasefire agreement reached in October. [2] A political source indicated that if nothing changes within three months, the board's director-general will declare Hamas in breach of the agreement. [2] In Iran, experts say Mojtaba Khamenei continues to set the guidelines for negotiations with the United States. [4] Western sources state that the supreme leader has ruled out resuming substantial negotiations on the nuclear program before the ceasefire becomes durable. [4] At the same time, he tries to avoid directly assuming controversial decisions. [4] He expressed reservations about a preliminary memorandum agreed with Washington on unfreezing some frozen Iranian assets but allowed negotiations to continue after recommendations from his collaborators. [4] The funeral ceremony for Ali Khamenei is considered a test for the new leadership. [4] Western intelligence services are closely monitoring images and appearances of Iranian officials to assess the health of Mojtaba Khamenei and the balance of power within the regime. [4]
What to watch next: Israeli officials expect a ruling from the Board of Peace within two to three months on whether Hamas has breached the ceasefire, while Vance indicated that Russia's negligible offensive gains could create space to bring the Ukraine situation to a conclusion and Iranian leadership has ruled out resuming substantial nuclear talks before the ceasefire becomes durable.
