UN Agency Warns Intensifying El Niño Will Heighten Worldwide Risk of Heatwaves and Floods
The UN weather agency warns that a strengthening El Niño will raise the global risk of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall in coming months, as extreme heat in France caused more than 2,000 excess deaths in one week and flooding continues in parts of the central United States.
El Niño Forecast Raises Global Extreme-Weather Risk
The World Meteorological Organization says a strong El Niño is expected to intensify between July and September. [2] This development will increase the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall worldwide. [2] The phenomenon comes on top of ongoing climate change. [4] The World Meteorological Organization notes that the probability of drought will rise in many parts of the world because of the weather phenomenon. [4] El Niño occurs naturally every two to seven years when surface water in parts of the Pacific becomes warmer than normal. [4] The current El Niño has already developed in the tropical Pacific. [4] It usually reaches its peak between November and February. [4] The World Meteorological Organization released its monthly climate update on the day the report appeared. [4]
Record Heatwave Death Toll in France
France recorded around 2025 excess deaths from 22 to 28 June compared with the previous week. [4] This figure was presented by Health Minister Stéphanie Rist on French television. [4] There was a 91 percent rise in deaths at home during the same period. [4] Mortality increased markedly among people over 45 years old. [4] The June heatwave reached an intensity never previously seen on the French mainland and Corsica. [4] Hospitals worked at full capacity to find solutions in the heat. [4] Since May, France has experienced two intense heatwaves. [4] Further heatwaves are expected in July and into early August, especially in southern parts of Europe. [4]
Excess deaths in France rise over 2000 during extreme heatwave. — Source: nrk
Wildfires Rage Across Southern France
Multiple wildfires burned across France in the last 24 hours, with 30 different locations affected. [4] In the south, three major fires burned north of Montpellier and east of Marseille. [4] A total of 8700 hectares has already burned. [4] Nearly 3000 people were evacuated. [4] A couple of thousand firefighters and civilians were mobilized. [4] The terrain is extremely dry after recent heatwaves, and strong wind gusts make firefighting difficult. [4] In several places in Aude, flames spread through rugged and hard-to-reach terrain. [4] The French meteorological institute warned of very high fire danger in six departments along the Mediterranean coast. [4]
Ongoing Flooding in Nebraska
Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues in northeastern Dundy County and northwestern Hitchcock County in southwestern Nebraska. [3] The warning remains in effect until 1100 AM MDT. [3] Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying areas is imminent or occurring. [3] Numerous roads remain closed due to flooding. [3] Streams continue to rise because of excess runoff from earlier rainfall. [3] Low-water crossings are inundated. [3] In Chase County the heavy rain has ended and flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat, although remaining road closures should still be heeded. [1]
Illinois Flood Warning Continues
Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues in portions of north-central and northeastern Illinois. [5] The affected counties are DeKalb in north-central Illinois and DuPage, Kane, Kendall and Will in northeastern Illinois. [5] The warning is in effect until 800 AM CDT. [5] Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. [5] Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. [5] Roads and streets may be flooded. [5] Doppler radar and automated rain gauges provided additional details at the time of the report. [5]
Broader Climate Context
Climate researcher Hans Olav Hygen at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute has worked in the field for more than 20 years. [4] He states that the main pattern is quite close to what was anticipated, yet the effects are greater than expected. [4] Society is not prepared to handle the situation. [4] The effects are probably more powerful than anticipated when warnings began. [4] Europe has been hit by a long series of heatwaves in recent summers. [4] Ten, twenty or thirty years ago the picture looked entirely different. [4] These conditions are completely outside the historical norm around which society was built. [4] Such extremes are now becoming a normal part of summer. [4]
What to watch next: The World Meteorological Organization expects the strong El Niño to continue developing rapidly between July and September, raising the chance of further heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall through the end of the year.
