Trump Administration Concludes Nuclear Deal With Iran Is Nearly Impossible

US Officials Signal End to Nuclear Deal Hopes

US officials stated on July 10, 2026, that the Trump administration now believes a nuclear deal with Iran is nearly impossible, with a senior official warning of serious military consequences if Tehran fails to provide written assurances by July 11 that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to international navigation and stops attacks on commercial ships. [1] A senior official from the White House emphasized that Iran must issue an official statement guaranteeing the strait stays open for international navigation while halting shootings at commercial vessels. [1] The officials conveyed that without written guarantees delivered no later than July 11, 2026, Tehran could face serious military consequences. [1] These statements from inside Washington have fueled speculation that President Trump may be preparing a new strategic direction after declaring the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended. [1]

Trump's Recent Statements on Iran

Trump told reporters on July 8 that Iran violates agreements daily, lies, cheats and kills, and expressed doubt that a nuclear deal can be reached even though Iran will never build a nuclear weapon under any agreement with the US. [1] The president stated directly to journalists that “They violate agreements every day, they lie, they cheat, they kill people.” [1] He added that “They will never build nuclear weapons based on our agreement, but I do not know if we will reach an agreement.” [1] These remarks came amid internal discussions in Washington about possible shifts away from negotiations toward other options, including the potential for broader military action to prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons. [1]

Violations of June Temporary Agreement

A temporary peace draft signed in June committed Iran to restoring shipping stability and safe routes for commercial vessels, but hardliners in Tehran interpret it as permission to control the strait and continue firing on ships deemed off approved routes. [1] Under the temporary draft, Iran had pledged to restore stability in shipping lanes and ensure safe passage for commercial ships. [1] However, hardline groups in Tehran have read those commitments as granting them authority to control the strait, leading them to continue targeting commercial vessels judged to be outside routes approved by Iran. [1] Officials noted that if Iran cannot adhere to the existing temporary commitments, prospects for any more complex nuclear agreement become even smaller. [1]

Iran's Response and Remaining Obstacles

Iran recently told the US that shooting at commercial ships was a mistake and that both sides should continue negotiations, but a nuclear deal remains unlikely unless Iran hands over control of its enriched uranium to the US. [1] Iranian officials recently informed the United States that the attacks on commercial vessels constituted a mistake and urged both sides to keep talks going. [1] Senior US officials stated that a nuclear agreement will not be possible unless Iran relinquishes control of its enriched uranium to the United States. [1] Without compliance on the shipping commitments, officials see little chance of advancing to a broader deal that would remove Iranian nuclear material and impose long-term limits on the program. [1]

Calls for Restraint from Pakistan

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar spoke by phone with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi to discuss the regional situation and called for restraint and dialogue amid the fresh US-Iran hostilities. [5] The two ministers reviewed the current regional situation during their telephone conversation. [5] Pakistan publicly urged both sides to exercise restraint and pursue dialogue in response to the renewed tensions. [5]

What to watch next: US officials will assess whether Iran delivers the required written assurances on the Strait of Hormuz by the July 11 deadline, while Pakistan continues diplomatic outreach to encourage restraint between Washington and Tehran.