Myanmar Presses Ahead with Second Round of Elections as Civil War Rages On
Yangon, Myanmar – Myanmar's military junta is conducting the second round of highly contested elections on Sunday, pressing forward with a political process critics decry as a sham amid the country's brutal four-year civil war, which has displaced millions and intensified in recent months.
The elections, part of a broader electoral rollout announced by the State Administration Council (SAC) led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, come nearly five years after the February 1, 2021, military coup that ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD). This second phase targets additional constituencies across conflict zones, underscoring the precarious balance between the junta's bid for legitimacy and the relentless armed resistance from pro-democracy forces and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs).
According to reports from the Associated Press, the voting process highlights significant logistical and security challenges. Polling stations in junta-controlled areas have opened, but vast swathes of the country—particularly in border regions and ethnic minority states like Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan—remain under rebel control or are battlegrounds, forcing many stations to close or operate under heavy military guard. Voter turnout in the first round earlier this year was reportedly low, with international observers barred and opposition groups boycotting the polls.
Escalating Civil Conflict Overshadows Polls
Myanmar's civil war, rated as high severity by global conflict trackers, has evolved from initial street protests into a full-scale insurgency since the 2021 coup. The junta's seizure of power triggered widespread civil disobedience, followed by the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG)—a shadow administration claiming legitimacy as the rightful government—and the People's Defense Forces (PDFs), loosely coordinated armed wings of the pro-democracy movement.
Ethnic armed groups, long marginalized under successive military-backed regimes, have seized the moment to launch coordinated offensives. The Three Brotherhood Alliance—comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Arakan Army (AA)—initiated Operation 1027 in October 2023, capturing key towns like Laukkai and Lashio in Shan State. By mid-2024, rebels controlled over 40% of Myanmar's territory, according to estimates from the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M). Recent fighting has spilled into central regions, with PDFs clashing with junta forces near Mandalay and in Sagaing Division.
The United Nations has documented over 6,000 civilian deaths since the coup, with more than 3.5 million internally displaced and over 1.4 million refugees in neighboring countries like Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. Humanitarian access remains severely restricted, exacerbating famine risks in Rakhine State and other hotspots.
Background: From Coup to Chronic Warfare
The roots of Myanmar's turmoil trace back decades to the military's dominance since independence in 1948. The 2021 coup followed disputed parliamentary elections won overwhelmingly by the NLD, prompting accusations of voter fraud by the military. Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders remain detained, facing a barrage of charges widely viewed as politically motivated.
Previous elections in 2015 and 2020 marked tentative democratic openings, but the junta dissolved the NLD and enacted election laws favoring its proxy, the National League for Democracy (rebranded proxies like the National Development Party). The current polls, originally slated for 2025 but accelerated, exclude most opposition voices and are conducted under a draconian cybersecurity law curbing dissent.
International response has been muted but critical. The United States, European Union, and others have imposed sanctions on junta figures and entities, while ASEAN's five-point consensus plan from 2021 has yielded little progress. China and Russia provide diplomatic cover and arms to the SAC, complicating global isolation efforts.
Challenges and Uncertain Path Forward
Security incidents during this second round have already marred the process, with reports of skirmishes near polling sites in Kayah and Kayin states. Rebel groups, including the NUG-aligned forces, have vowed to disrupt the elections, labeling them illegitimate and a tool for the junta to entrench power.
Analysts note that even if completed, the elections may fail to quell unrest. The junta controls urban centers like Yangon and Naypyidaw but struggles against a hydra-like insurgency. Economic collapse—marked by hyperinflation, fuel shortages, and a kyat currency plunge—further erodes public support.
As voting unfolds, the international community watches warily. UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews has called for recognition of the NUG and renewed diplomatic pressure. With the civil war showing no signs of abating, Myanmar's electoral experiment risks deepening divisions rather than resolving them, potentially paving the way for prolonged instability in Southeast Asia's most volatile flashpoint.
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