Israelis Divided on Returning to Gaza Border Communities After Two Years of War
JERUSALEM — As the Israel-Hamas war marks two years since its explosive start on October 7, 2023, Israelis near the Gaza border are grappling with starkly differing sentiments about resettling evacuated communities, amid a broader landscape of military operations against Hamas and Hezbollah that analysts describe as decisively weakening Iran's proxy networks.
Recent discussions, peaking around December 31, 2025, highlight a high-severity tension in public responses to potential border repopulation. While some former residents express determination to reclaim their homes in areas like the Gaza Envelope—communities such as Kibbutz Be'eri and Sderot that were devastated in the initial Hamas assault—others voice deep reservations over lingering security threats. This divide underscores the war's profound psychological and social toll, even as Israel's military campaigns in Gaza and southern Lebanon have shifted the strategic dynamics.
The conflict erupted with Hamas's cross-border attack, killing approximately 1,200 people—mostly civilians—and taking 251 hostages, prompting a massive Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) response. Ground operations in Gaza began in late October 2023, aiming to dismantle Hamas's military infrastructure. By 2024, the war expanded northward with Hezbollah's rocket barrages from Lebanon, displacing tens of thousands of Israelis from border areas and drawing Israel into a second front.
A recent analysis by Middle East expert Vali Nasr, published on January 5, 2026, by Liga.net, evaluates Israel's military operations against Hezbollah and Hamas from 2024 to 2025 as a "crushing defeat" (rozghrom) for Iran's proxies. Nasr's piece, titled "Military Operation of Israel Against Hezbollah and Hamas: Results and Consequences 2024-2025 Years," argues that these efforts have significantly degraded the capabilities of both groups. The URL slug of the article—"rozghrom-proksi-iranu-ta-proval-nadiy-trampa-vorohy-izrailiu-zvertaiutsia-do-kytaiu-ta-rosii"—translates to "Crushing of Iran's Proxies and Failure of Trump's Hopes: Israel's Enemies Turn to China and Russia," suggesting that despite expectations tied to the U.S. political shift under President Donald Trump (inaugurated January 2025), adversaries have sought alternative patrons amid battlefield setbacks.
Nasr's assessment aligns with verified developments through 2025. In Gaza, IDF operations have eliminated key Hamas leaders, destroyed tunnels, and reduced rocket fire, though Hamas retains some guerrilla capacity. Palestinian health authorities report over 45,000 deaths in Gaza since October 2023, with Israel attributing most to Hamas's use of civilian areas. Hostage releases and rescues have numbered around 150, but over 100 remain in captivity as of late 2025.
On the northern front, Israel's escalation in September 2024—including the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and a ground incursion into southern Lebanon—led to a fragile ceasefire in November 2024 under UN Resolution 1701. By 2025, Hezbollah's arsenal was reportedly reduced by up to 80%, per IDF estimates, allowing some northern evacuees to begin limited returns. However, Gaza border areas remain largely depopulated, with over 60 communities evacuated since 2023.
Background: A Multifront War
The Gaza Envelope, a cluster of 23 communities within 7 kilometers of the border, was ground zero for the October 7 atrocities, where Hamas militants overran defenses, committing documented massacres and abductions. Evacuation orders displaced around 100,000 residents, many still in hotels or temporary housing. Recent surveys and media reports indicate a split: a poll by Israel's Channel 12 in mid-2025 showed 45% of evacuees willing to return immediately if security improves, while 35% cited trauma and fear as barriers. Advocacy groups like the Gaza Envelope Residents' Committee push for fortified returns, arguing military gains against Hamas justify it.
Broader context includes U.S. support under both Biden and Trump administrations, with munitions and diplomatic backing. Ceasefire negotiations, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S., have stalled over demands for full hostage release and Hamas disarmament. Iran's role as backer of both fronts has been curtailed by Israeli strikes on its assets, including in Syria.
Nasr's analysis posits that the proxy setbacks have forced Hamas and Hezbollah allies toward China and Russia for succor, reflecting a geopolitical realignment. This comes amid Trump's administration emphasizing "maximum pressure" on Iran, though Nasr notes a perceived shortfall in delivering hoped-for decisive victories.
Outlook: Security vs. Resilience
As of early 2026, no full-scale return to Gaza border areas has been authorized, pending enhanced defenses like expanded buffer zones and advanced surveillance. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has pledged billions in reconstruction, but public trust hinges on sustained quiet. The differing responses—resilience from some, caution from others—mirror Israel's wartime ethos of defiance tempered by hard-learned lessons.
With Hamas and Hezbollah battered but not eradicated, the path to normalcy remains fraught. International pressure for Gaza reconstruction grows, alongside scrutiny over humanitarian conditions. For border residents, the question is not just if, but when—and under what guarantees—they can rebuild.
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