Iran Strikes Target Qeshm and Kish Islands as US Launches Third Night of Attacks

The recent Iran strikes have escalated as US forces conducted new strikes on Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz for a third consecutive night, while President Trump withdrew a proposed 20% transit fee in favor of seeking investment deals with Gulf states. [1]

US Strikes Hit Iranian Islands Near Hormuz

US forces carried out waves of attacks for the third night in a row on targets near the Strait of Hormuz. [1] The governor’s office of Iran’s Qeshm Island said it was hit by a US projectile at around 7pm on Tuesday. [1] A US projectile exploded near a water and electricity facility on Iran’s Kish Island. [1] State media also reported an explosion heard in Andimeshk in southern Khuzestan province. [1] The strikes are currently focused on threats along the strait and on weapons systems capable of targeting ships. [5] The US military is also conducting strikes on the periphery of Hormuz but not beyond that except in exceptional cases. [5] The latest wave of strikes comes ahead of a US naval blockade on Iran that is scheduled to begin at 11 p.m. Israel time on Tuesday. [5] No ship will leave and no ship will enter under the blockade. [5] The US and Israel struck Iran on February 28. [1]

Trump Abandons Hormuz Fee for Investment Deals

US President Donald Trump stepped back from a proposal to charge a 20 per cent transit fee to guard the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway. [1] Trump said on Tuesday he would instead seek investment deals with Gulf states. [1] Just a little under five hours before the fee had been due to come into effect at 2000 GMT, Trump said the strait was open to all shipping traffic except that of Iran. [1] Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, Trump decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States. [1] Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that he did not think anyone should be able to charge a fee for transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. [2] Trump said later on Tuesday that he did not like the concept of a fee for using the strait and said countries had called him to say they wanted to invest in the US instead of being charged a fee. [1] Trump did not mention any commitments by them, saying only that investments will be MASSIVE but at the same time extraordinarily good for them and their future. [1] Trump withdrew from his proposal on Monday of charging a 20 percent fee on cargo shipped through the strait. [2]

US strikes hit targets on Iran's Qeshm and Kish islands near the Strait of Hormuz. — Source: middleeasteye

Iranian Retaliation and Regional Aerial Threats

Iran had earlier hit back by attacking a US Army base in Jordan with ballistic missiles. [1] Jordan said it had shot down four ballistic missiles and explosions were heard in Manama, Bahrain’s capital. [1] Bahrain, which hosts a US naval base, said it had fended off an Iranian aerial attack. [1] In the early evening, Kuwait said its armed forces were engaging with hostile aerial targets and the state news agency said sirens had sounded in the country. [1] Kuwait’s Armed Forces announced that they were in the process of combatting hostile aerial targets namely missile and drone threats within their airspace. [5] Shortly afterward, Bahrain's Interior Ministry announced that rocket sirens were sounding in the country. [5]

Oil Prices Surge on Renewed Conflict

Oil prices rose about 2pc to a one-month high on Tuesday after the US reimposed the naval blockade on Iran. [1] Oil prices rose about two percent to a one-month high on Tuesday after the US imposed a naval blockade and launched new strikes on Iran. [2] The resumption of attacks between the US and Iran is accelerating this week and will likely continue given the additional US bombing overnight that followed reinstatement of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. [2] Before the war about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas traffic passed through the waterway daily. [1] If the US were to have imposed a 20pc fee it could have generated around $240 million a day. [1]

Diplomatic Signals Amid Ongoing Strikes

A diplomatic source told the Post that the Trump administration has continued to send messages to Tehran indicating that negotiations are still an option. [5] At least as far as the strikes are concerned they are not crossing a certain line while at the same time signaling that there is still something to talk about. [5] Trump appeared to hedge that earlier on Tuesday by saying they are tough people and he gave Iran a chance to make a deal. [5] They fired first and that was a very big mistake. [5] Regional analysts said the hostilities remained within controlled boundaries for now with both sides seeking leverage for an eventual peace deal. [1] I doubt the two sides will resume a full war especially as Trump will suffer though there is also a distinct possibility that the Iranians will overplay their hand. [1] That is true of Trump too of course. [1] The conflict has proved unpopular in the US where gasoline prices have risen since the start of the war and congressional elections are looming in November. [1] Half of those surveyed in a Reuters poll said they believed the war had not been worth its costs. [1] The war has also reignited conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon killed thousands and displaced millions. [1] Lebanon and Israel resumed talks on Tuesday in Rome with Beirut seeking progress towards securing an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon under a US-brokered deal. [1]

International Reactions to Escalation

The move to impose US fees had drawn sharp criticism. [1] The UN shipping agency said it opposed any fees for straits used in international navigation and that there was no legal basis for introducing mandatory tolls on strait transits. [1] Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd the world’s fifth-largest container shipping company said it would be fundamentally wrong. [1] Russia says renewed strikes against Iran violate memorandum and undermine nuclear settlement efforts. [4] Attacks come amid heightened tensions between US and Iran over Strait of Hormuz. [3] Oman says 6 seafarers injured 3 missing after attacks on 3 tankers. [3] The worsening attacks had increased doubts that a memorandum of understanding signed last month would lead to a permanent halt in the war which has disrupted global energy supplies and raised fears of a rise in inflation globally. [1]

What to watch next: Regional analysts said the hostilities remained within controlled boundaries for now with both sides seeking leverage for an eventual peace deal but that there was still a risk of fighting spinning out of control.