US Eyes Venezuela Oil Sanctions Relief After Maduro Capture Amid Reports of Russian Geopolitical Overture
Washington/Caracas – The United States is signaling a potential thaw in its long-standing economic pressure on Venezuela, with officials hinting at an imminent rollback of oil sanctions following the recent capture of President Nicolás Maduro. This development coincides with claims from a former Trump adviser that Russia proposed granting the US a "free hand" in Venezuela in exchange for concessions on Ukraine, raising questions about backchannel diplomacy amid shifting global power dynamics.
The capture of Maduro, a polarizing figure who has ruled Venezuela since 2013, marks a dramatic turning point in the South American nation's protracted political crisis. A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that the event could pave the way for lifting oil-related sanctions imposed during the Trump and Biden administrations. These measures, aimed at curbing Maduro's regime amid allegations of human rights abuses and electoral fraud, have severely restricted Venezuela's ability to export its vast crude reserves—the world's largest proven oil deposits. "The situation has changed fundamentally," the official was quoted as saying in a Times of India report, suggesting a recalibration of US policy to stabilize the region and secure energy interests.
Parallel reports from Finnish public broadcaster Yle highlight urgent US efforts to encourage American oil majors to ramp up investments in Venezuela. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent is reportedly pressing companies to prepare for re-entry, with sanctions expected to be partially dismantled in the coming days. This push aligns with broader US objectives to diversify energy supplies away from adversarial producers like Russia and Iran, both of whom have backed Maduro. Venezuela's oil production has plummeted from over 3 million barrels per day in the early 2000s to around 800,000 barrels recently, hampered by underinvestment, corruption, and sanctions. A sanctions rollback could boost output, potentially easing global oil prices strained by ongoing Middle East tensions and winter demand.
These moves come against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical maneuvering. Posts on X (formerly Twitter), referencing an Associated Press report, have amplified claims by Fiona Hill—a former Russia adviser to President Donald Trump during his first term—that Moscow offered the US unfettered influence over Venezuela in return for leniency on Ukraine. Hill reportedly testified to Congress on this alleged proposal, framing it as a potential "backyard" bargain: Russia secures space in Eastern Europe while the US regains leverage in Latin America. While such posts reflect growing online speculation, they remain inconclusive without official confirmation from Washington or Moscow. Neither the White House nor the Kremlin has publicly addressed the assertion as of January 11, 2026.
Background: Venezuela's Turmoil and International Entanglements
Venezuela's crisis traces back to the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013, whose socialist policies initially buoyed the oil-dependent economy but later fueled hyperinflation, shortages, and mass emigration—over 7 million people have fled since. Maduro's 2018 re-election, widely decried as fraudulent, prompted the US and dozens of allies to recognize opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president in 2019. Harsh sanctions followed, targeting PDVSA, the state oil company, and regime officials.
Russia emerged as Maduro's key patron, providing billions in loans, gold purchases, and Wagner Group mercenaries to prop up his forces. This alliance deepened after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Venezuela abstaining from UN condemnations and supplying drones. China and Iran have also invested heavily, complicating US efforts to isolate the regime. Maduro's capture—details of which remain sparse—could stem from internal dissent, opposition advances, or external operations, though no source attributes responsibility.
Broader Implications
A sanctions lift could inject billions into Venezuela's economy, enabling debt restructuring and humanitarian aid. Chevron, the sole major US firm operating there under a Biden-era license, stands to expand, alongside competitors like ExxonMobil. Globally, increased Venezuelan supply might temper oil prices, currently hovering around $75 per barrel amid Red Sea disruptions.
Yet challenges persist. Maduro loyalists control key institutions, and any transitional government faces risks of violence or fragmentation. The alleged Russian offer, if true, underscores how the Ukraine war—now in its fourth year with heavy casualties and stalled negotiations—influences distant theaters. US-Russia talks on Venezuela could signal pragmatic détente under the incoming Trump administration, prioritizing energy security over ideology.
Analysts caution that implementation hinges on political stability. "Investments won't flow without guarantees," one energy expert noted anonymously. As Washington weighs its next steps, Venezuela's fate illustrates the intricate interplay of oil, alliances, and great-power rivalry in 2026's volatile landscape.
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