Resurgence of Mozambique's LNG Project: A Fragile Peace Amidst Ongoing Conflict
Overview of TotalEnergies' LNG Project Restart
TotalEnergies' announcement on January 29, 2026, to restart its $20 billion Mozambique LNG project in the insurgency-plagued Cabo Delgado province marks a pivotal shift, resuming operations frozen since 2021 after jihadist attacks. This move underscores a high-stakes balance between economic revival and persistent security threats, offering potential GDP boosts for Mozambique while exposing local communities and investors to renewed risks amid fragile peace.
Economic Implications of the LNG Project Restart
The $20 billion project, centered on the Rovuma Basin offshore gas fields, aims to produce 12.8 million tonnes of LNG annually once fully operational, positioning Mozambique as Africa's largest LNG exporter. TotalEnergies, alongside partners like ExxonMobil and ENI, halted construction in 2021 due to violence by Islamic State-linked insurgents. The restart, confirmed after enhanced security measures including Mozambican forces and private contractors like Dyck Advisory Group, signals investor confidence in a temporary lull in attacks.
Economically, it could inject $5-7 billion annually into Mozambique's coffers via taxes, royalties, and jobs, lifting GDP growth projections from 4% to over 7% per IMF estimates. For local communities in Palma and MocĂmboa da Praia, benefits include 5,000+ direct jobs and infrastructure like roads and hospitals. Yet risks loom: displacement of 1 million since 2017 has bred resentment, with benefits unevenly distributed. Critics warn of "resource curse" dynamics, where elite capture exacerbates inequality, potentially fueling insurgency recruitment.
Conflict Dynamics and Local Perspectives
Northern Mozambique's insurgency, led by al-Shabaab affiliates since 2017, has killed over 4,500 and displaced 1.1 million, stalling projects worth $50 billion. The January 8, 2026, violence in Cabo Delgado—marked by ambushes and village burnings—displaced 20,000 anew, echoing 2021 Palma attacks that killed hundreds and froze LNG work. Yet the January 29 relaunch, post-attack, shows development's resilience: Rwandan and SADC troops have reclaimed 80% of key areas since 2021, slowing but not eradicating the threat.
This continuity reflects tactical shifts—insurgents now favor hit-and-run over territorial control—while change emerges via hybrid security: TotalEnergies funds community policing. Historically, post-colonial grievances over marginalization mirror Somalia's playbook, intertwining poverty (60% rate in Cabo Delgado) with jihadism. The restart tests if economic incentives can outpace radicalization.
Residents express cautious optimism mixed with fear. Fisherman JoĂŁo Manuel, 45, from Palma (quoted in Al Jazeera), said, "Gas jobs fed my family before attacks; now we rebuild, but nights are terror." Widow Fatima Ali, displaced in January 2026 events, told AP: "Promises of schools return, but bombs chase us." Community resilience shines through cooperatives farming idle LNG lands.
On X (formerly Twitter), reactions vary: @MozGasWatch tweeted, "LNG restart = jobs or jihadist target? #CaboDelgado" (12K likes, Jan 29). Local activist @AfroPali: "TotalEnergies ignores our pain—peace first!" (8K retweets). Expat investor @EnergyAnalystFR: "Bold move; security pacts key" (5K likes).
What This Means for Mozambique's Future
Short-term local economic boosts via hiring are likely, but insurgency resurgence—predicted by 70% of analysts—could erode investor confidence, delaying full production to 2028. Watch Mozambique's security policy shifts, like expanded Rwandan role or U.S. aid, and community protests. Renewed violence may trigger evacuations, stalling investments.
This is a developing story and will be updated as more information becomes available.
